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Mohammad Syafiq Kamal v Abhay Singh (Thu 21 Nov 2019)

Match won by Mohammad Syafiq Kamal. Result: 11-6,7-11,11-7,12-10.

Starting level for Mohammad Syafiq Kamal: 20,796, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Abhay Singh: 20,839, level confidence: 58%.
Abhay Singh to win as he is currently playing 0% better than Mohammad Syafiq Kamal.

Mohammad Syafiq Kamal won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohammad Syafiq Kamal played 24% better than Abhay Singh in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mohammad Syafiq Kamal actually played at a level of 23,139 and Abhay Singh at a level of 18,729. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 11% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohammad Syafiq Kamal changes to +9.5% and Abhay Singh changes to -11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohammad Syafiq Kamal becomes +2.6% and for Abhay Singh becomes -3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA London Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohammad Syafiq Kamal: 82%, Abhay Singh: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohammad Syafiq Kamal: 74%, Abhay Singh: 68%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mohammad Syafiq Kamal: 21,314, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Abhay Singh: 20,314, level confidence: 68%.