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Martin Svec v Tom J Walsh (Thu 21 Nov 2019)

Match won by Martin Svec. Result: 10-12,11-3,11-8,11-8.

Starting level for Martin Svec: 22,648, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Tom J Walsh: 19,329, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Martin Svec to win as he is currently playing 17% better than Tom J Walsh.

Martin Svec won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 39% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Martin Svec played 30% better than Tom J Walsh in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Martin Svec actually played at a level of 23,812 and Tom J Walsh at a level of 18,384. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.1% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Martin Svec changes to +4.7% and Tom J Walsh changes to -3.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Martin Svec becomes +1.6% and for Tom J Walsh becomes -1.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Saskatoon Boast Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Martin Svec: 78%, Tom J Walsh: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Martin Svec: 74%, Tom J Walsh: 88%.

Final level for Martin Svec: 23,016, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Tom J Walsh: 19,064, level confidence: 88%.