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Mario Yanez v Lyell Fuller (Thu 21 Nov 2019)

Match won by Mario Yanez. Result: 8-11,11-6,11-4,7-11,12-10.

Starting level for Mario Yanez: 24,343, level confidence: 52%.
Starting level for Lyell Fuller: 23,818, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Mario Yanez to win as he is currently playing 2% better than Lyell Fuller.

Mario Yanez won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 17% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mario Yanez played 12% better than Lyell Fuller in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mario Yanez actually played at a level of 25,445 and Lyell Fuller at a level of 22,787. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.5% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mario Yanez changes to +4.5% and Lyell Fuller changes to -3.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mario Yanez becomes +1.5% and for Lyell Fuller becomes -1.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Dominicana Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mario Yanez: 72%, Lyell Fuller: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mario Yanez: 69%, Lyell Fuller: 82%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mario Yanez: 24,715, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Lyell Fuller: 23,586, level confidence: 82%.