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Mohamed Abouelghar v Mazen Hesham (Fri 22 Nov 2019)

Match won by Mohamed Abouelghar. Result: 11-8,11-7,3-11,9-11,11-7.

Starting level for Mohamed Abouelghar: 55,743, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mazen Hesham: 46,328, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Mohamed Abouelghar to win as he is currently playing 20% better than Mazen Hesham.

Mohamed Abouelghar won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Abouelghar played 8% better than Mazen Hesham in this match.

As Mohamed Abouelghar has played below his allowed range at 52,264, his level reduction is 4.4% before damping. On the assumption that Mohamed Abouelghar would normally have been playing at level 55,147 (based on typical behaviour), Mazen Hesham played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Abouelghar changes to -4% and Mazen Hesham changes to +4.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Abouelghar becomes -1.3% and for Mazen Hesham becomes +1.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Channel Vas Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Abouelghar: 84%, Mazen Hesham: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Abouelghar: 80%, Mazen Hesham: 83%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mohamed Abouelghar: 55,057, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Mazen Hesham: 47,036, level confidence: 83%.