Nick Wall v Faraz Khan (Sun 24 Nov 2019)
Match won by Nick Wall. Result: 11-6,11-7,7-11,11-5.
Starting level for
Nick Wall:
24,415, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Faraz Khan:
20,624, level confidence: 70%.
Nick Wall to win as he is currently playing
18% better than Faraz Khan.
Nick Wall won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 38% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick Wall played
29% better than Faraz Khan in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nick Wall actually played at a level of
25,513 and Faraz Khan at a level of
19,737. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.5% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick Wall changes to +3.5% and Faraz Khan changes to -4.1%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick Wall becomes +1.4% and for Faraz Khan becomes -1.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Las Vegas Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick Wall: 90%, Faraz Khan: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick Wall: 87%, Faraz Khan: 80%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Nick Wall:
24,663, level confidence: 87%.
Final level for Faraz Khan:
20,425, level confidence: 80%.