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James Willstrop v Patrick Rooney (Sun 24 Nov 2019)

Match won by James Willstrop. Result: 8-11,11-6,11-7,11-6.

Starting level for James Willstrop: 48,366, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Patrick Rooney: 37,144, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
James Willstrop to win as he is currently playing 30% better than Patrick Rooney.

James Willstrop won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 37% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Willstrop played 29% better than Patrick Rooney in this match.

In this case, James Willstrop played at level 47,860 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Patrick Rooney is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Willstrop: 88%, Patrick Rooney: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Willstrop: 87%, Patrick Rooney: 87%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for James Willstrop: 48,421, level confidence: 87%.
Final level for Patrick Rooney: 37,317, level confidence: 87%.