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Nat Fairhurst v Andy Whipp (Tue 26 Nov 2019)

Match won by Andy Whipp. Result: 6-11,6-11,6-11.

Starting level for Nat Fairhurst: 8,902, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Andy Whipp: 20,166, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Andy Whipp to win as he is currently playing 127% better than Nat Fairhurst.

Andy Whipp won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andy Whipp played 83% better than Nat Fairhurst in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Andy Whipp was taking it easy by anything up to 16%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 13,705 and 20,166 without affecting his level.

In this case, Andy Whipp played at level 16,650 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Andy Whipp would normally have been playing at level 16,985 (based on typical behaviour), Nat Fairhurst played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andy Whipp changes to 0% and Nat Fairhurst changes to +1.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andy Whipp becomes 0% and for Nat Fairhurst becomes +0.7%.

Given Nat Fairhurst's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 14% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Andy Whipp is 0% and for Nat Fairhurst is +0.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andy Whipp: 86%, Nat Fairhurst: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andy Whipp: 77%, Nat Fairhurst: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nat Fairhurst: 8,928, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Andy Whipp: 20,136, level confidence: 77%.