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Lewis Anderson v Howard Lancashire (Mon 25 Nov 2019)

Match won by Lewis Anderson. Result: 11-8,13-11,11-7.

Starting level for Lewis Anderson: 17,640, level confidence: 53%.
Starting level for Howard Lancashire: 9,744, level confidence: 68%.
Lewis Anderson to win as he is currently playing 81% better than Howard Lancashire.

Lewis Anderson won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 35% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lewis Anderson played 41% better than Howard Lancashire in this match.

As Lewis Anderson has played below his allowed range at 13,963, his level reduction is 1.4% before damping. On the assumption that Lewis Anderson would normally have been playing at level 15,997 (based on typical behaviour), Howard Lancashire played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.8%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1% and 5.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lewis Anderson changes to -1% and Howard Lancashire changes to +4.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lewis Anderson becomes -0.5% and for Howard Lancashire becomes +1.9%.

Given Lewis Anderson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 35% has been applied to his level change.

Given Howard Lancashire's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 16% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Warwickshire Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Lewis Anderson is 0% and for Howard Lancashire is +1.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lewis Anderson: 73%, Howard Lancashire: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lewis Anderson: 64%, Howard Lancashire: 73%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lewis Anderson: 17,639, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Howard Lancashire: 9,886, level confidence: 73%.