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Anthony Rogal v Dan West (Thu 28 Nov 2019)

Match won by Anthony Rogal. Result: 11-2,11-5,11-8.

Starting level for Anthony Rogal: 15,686, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for Dan West: 10,178, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Anthony Rogal to win as he is currently playing 54% better than Dan West.

Anthony Rogal won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Anthony Rogal played 120% better than Dan West in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Anthony Rogal actually played at a level of 18,741 and Dan West at a level of 8,519. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 15% and 15% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Anthony Rogal changes to +14% and Dan West changes to -15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Anthony Rogal becomes +3.7% and for Dan West becomes -4.4%.

Given Anthony Rogal's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 31% has been applied to his level change.

Given Dan West's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 18% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Sussex Mens League 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Anthony Rogal is +2.1% and for Dan West is -2.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Anthony Rogal: 90%, Dan West: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Anthony Rogal: 75%, Dan West: 71%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Anthony Rogal: 16,019, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Dan West: 9,905, level confidence: 71%.