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Nafizwan Adnan v Aaron Liang (Thu 14 Nov 2019)

Match won by Nafizwan Adnan. Result: 12-14,11-6,10-12,11-7,11-9.

Starting level for Nafizwan Adnan: 31,383, level confidence: 29%.
Starting level for Aaron Liang: 10,596, level confidence: 69%.
Nafizwan Adnan to win as he is currently playing 196% better than Aaron Liang.

Nafizwan Adnan won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 15% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nafizwan Adnan played 11% better than Aaron Liang in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Nafizwan Adnan was taking it easy by anything up to 24%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 18,133 and 31,383 without affecting his level.

As Nafizwan Adnan has played below his allowed range at 14,614, his level reduction is 24% before damping. On the assumption that Nafizwan Adnan would normally have been playing at level 23,855 (based on typical behaviour), Aaron Liang played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 42%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 13% and 23% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nafizwan Adnan changes to -13% and Aaron Liang changes to +9.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nafizwan Adnan becomes -3.2% and for Aaron Liang becomes +3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Singapore Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nafizwan Adnan: 54%, Aaron Liang: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nafizwan Adnan: 33%, Aaron Liang: 51%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nafizwan Adnan: 30,373, level confidence: 33%.
Final level for Aaron Liang: 10,903, level confidence: 51%.