Harry Falconer v Lewis Anderson (Tue 26 Nov 2019)
Match won by Harry Falconer. Result: 8-11,13-11,6-11,11-3,11-8.
Starting level for
Harry Falconer:
19,604, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Lewis Anderson:
17,639, level confidence: 64%.
Harry Falconer to win as he is currently playing
11% better than Lewis Anderson.
Harry Falconer won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 11% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harry Falconer played
10% better than Lewis Anderson in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Harry Falconer actually played at a level of
19,533 and Lewis Anderson at a level of
17,703. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.4% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harry Falconer changes to 0% and Lewis Anderson changes to +0.3%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harry Falconer becomes -0.1% and for Lewis Anderson becomes 0%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Sutton Coldfield International' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harry Falconer: 87%, Lewis Anderson: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harry Falconer: 87%, Lewis Anderson: 80%.
Final level for Harry Falconer:
19,579, level confidence: 87%.
Final level for Lewis Anderson:
17,666, level confidence: 80%.