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Moustafa Elsirty v Connor Sheen (Wed 27 Nov 2019)

Match won by Moustafa Elsirty. Result: 4-11,10-12,11-7,11-5,11-8.

Starting level for Moustafa Elsirty: 23,977, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Connor Sheen: 20,172, level confidence: 62%.
Moustafa Elsirty to win as he is currently playing 19% better than Connor Sheen.

Moustafa Elsirty won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 9% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Moustafa Elsirty played 10% better than Connor Sheen in this match.

As Moustafa Elsirty has played below his allowed range at 22,841, his level reduction is 3.1% before damping. On the assumption that Moustafa Elsirty would normally have been playing at level 23,762 (based on typical behaviour), Connor Sheen played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.6%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Moustafa Elsirty changes to -2.3% and Connor Sheen changes to +3.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Moustafa Elsirty becomes -1% and for Connor Sheen becomes +1.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Valencia Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Moustafa Elsirty: 87%, Connor Sheen: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Moustafa Elsirty: 83%, Connor Sheen: 76%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Moustafa Elsirty: 23,716, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Connor Sheen: 20,483, level confidence: 76%.