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Josh Owen v Lewis Anderson (Mon 02 Dec 2019)

Match won by Josh Owen. Result: 11-9,11-3,11-5.

Starting level for Josh Owen: 16,694, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Lewis Anderson: 17,556, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Lewis Anderson to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Josh Owen.

Josh Owen won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Josh Owen played 94% better than Lewis Anderson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Josh Owen actually played at a level of 23,852 and Lewis Anderson at a level of 12,287. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 43% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Josh Owen changes to +42% and Lewis Anderson changes to -33%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Josh Owen becomes +8.9% and for Lewis Anderson becomes -7.3%.

Given Josh Owen's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 33% has been applied to his level change.

Given Lewis Anderson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 35% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Warwickshire Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Josh Owen is +5% and for Lewis Anderson is -3.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Josh Owen: 85%, Lewis Anderson: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Josh Owen: 60%, Lewis Anderson: 65%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Josh Owen: 17,511, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Lewis Anderson: 16,876, level confidence: 65%.