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Andy Whipp v Adam Turner (Tue 03 Dec 2019)

Match won by Andy Whipp. Result: 8-11,9-11,11-4,11-5,11-9.

Starting level for Andy Whipp: 19,966, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Adam Turner: 15,665, level confidence: 70%.
Andy Whipp to win as he is currently playing 27% better than Adam Turner.

Andy Whipp won 60% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 25% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andy Whipp played 14% better than Adam Turner in this match.

As Andy Whipp has played below his allowed range at 18,454, his level reduction is 3.6% before damping. On the assumption that Andy Whipp would normally have been playing at level 19,582 (based on typical behaviour), Adam Turner played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.8%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.2% and 4.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andy Whipp changes to -2.9% and Adam Turner changes to +4.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andy Whipp becomes -1.3% and for Adam Turner becomes +1.6%.

Given Andy Whipp's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 39% has been applied to his level change.

Given Adam Turner's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 31% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Andy Whipp is -0.7% and for Adam Turner is +0.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andy Whipp: 87%, Adam Turner: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andy Whipp: 82%, Adam Turner: 79%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Andy Whipp: 19,803, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Adam Turner: 15,789, level confidence: 79%.