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Joe Lee v Angus Gillams (Wed 27 Nov 2019)

Match won by Joe Lee. Result: 11-5,11-6,11-4.

Starting level for Joe Lee: 24,509, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Starting level for Angus Gillams: 25,888, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Angus Gillams to win as he is currently playing 6% better than Joe Lee.

Joe Lee won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joe Lee played 120% better than Angus Gillams in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Joe Lee actually played at a level of 37,361 and Angus Gillams at a level of 16,982. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 52% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joe Lee changes to +44% and Angus Gillams changes to -51%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joe Lee becomes +8.6% and for Angus Gillams becomes -9.6%.

Given Joe Lee's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 47% has been applied to his level change.

Given Angus Gillams's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 49% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Joe Lee is +4.4% and for Angus Gillams is -4.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joe Lee: 93%, Angus Gillams: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joe Lee: 61%, Angus Gillams: 57%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Joe Lee: 25,575, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Angus Gillams: 24,735, level confidence: 57%.