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Anthony Rogal v Tom May (Sat 30 Nov 2019)

Match won by Anthony Rogal. Result: 11-0,11-0,11-4.

Starting level for Anthony Rogal: 16,019, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tom May: 8,184, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Anthony Rogal to win as he is currently playing 96% better than Tom May.

Anthony Rogal won all of the games and 89% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 725% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Anthony Rogal played 725% better than Tom May in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Anthony Rogal actually played at a level of 32,887 and Tom May at a level of 3,986. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 105% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 67% and 67% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Anthony Rogal changes to +67% and Tom May changes to -56%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Anthony Rogal becomes +13.1% and for Tom May becomes -13%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Kent Canterbury Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Anthony Rogal is limited to +6.9% and Tom May is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Anthony Rogal: 86%, Tom May: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Anthony Rogal: 42%, Tom May: 44%.

Final level for Anthony Rogal: 17,131, level confidence: 42%.
Final level for Tom May: 7,794, level confidence: 44%.