SquashLevels calculations
Joel Makin v Anthony Rogal (Sat 30 Nov 2019)
Match won by Joel Makin. Result: 11-4,11-4,11-3.
Starting level for
Joel Makin:
53,430, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for
Anthony Rogal:
16,831, level confidence: 42%.
Joel Makin to win as he is currently playing
217% better than Anthony Rogal.
Joel Makin won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joel Makin played
200% better than Anthony Rogal in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Joel Makin was taking it easy by anything up to 26%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 29,021 and 53,430 without affecting his level.
In this case, Joel Makin played at level 50,493 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Anthony Rogal is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joel Makin: 77%, Anthony Rogal: 65%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joel Makin: 75%, Anthony Rogal: 63%.
Final level for Joel Makin:
53,430, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Anthony Rogal:
16,831, level confidence: 63%.