Ben Coleman v Tom Richards (Sat 30 Nov 2019)
Match won by Ben Coleman. Result: 10-12,11-9,9-11,16-14,11-9.
Starting level for
Ben Coleman:
31,739, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for
Tom Richards:
37,300, level confidence: 40%.
Tom Richards to win as he is currently playing
18% better than Ben Coleman.
Ben Coleman won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 4% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ben Coleman played
8% better than Tom Richards in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ben Coleman actually played at a level of
35,825 and Tom Richards at a level of
33,046. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ben Coleman changes to +7.5% and Tom Richards changes to -12%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ben Coleman becomes +2.1% and for Tom Richards becomes -2.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Kent Canterbury Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ben Coleman: 79%, Tom Richards: 63%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ben Coleman: 70%, Tom Richards: 56%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Ben Coleman:
32,398, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Tom Richards:
36,348, level confidence: 56%.