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Scott Handley v James Wass (Wed 04 Dec 2019)

Match won by Scott Handley. Result: 11-6,11-9,14-12.

Starting level for Scott Handley: 14,457, level confidence: 34%.
Starting level for James Wass: 7,027, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Scott Handley to win as he is currently playing 106% better than James Wass.

Scott Handley won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 33% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Scott Handley played 40% better than James Wass in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Scott Handley was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 10,530 and 14,457 without affecting his level.

As Scott Handley has played below his allowed range at 10,196, his level reduction is 3.3% before damping. On the assumption that Scott Handley would normally have been playing at level 12,557 (based on typical behaviour), James Wass played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 13%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.3% and 8.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Scott Handley changes to -2.3% and James Wass changes to +4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Scott Handley becomes -1% and for James Wass becomes +1.9%.

Given Scott Handley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 28% has been applied to his level change.

Given James Wass's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 7.9% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Scott Handley is -0.6% and for James Wass is +1.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Scott Handley: 58%, James Wass: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Scott Handley: 48%, James Wass: 71%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Scott Handley: 14,348, level confidence: 48%.
Final level for James Wass: 7,108, level confidence: 71%.