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Richie Fallows v Adam Auckland (Wed 27 Nov 2019)

Match won by Adam Auckland. Result: 9-11,8-11,10-12.

Starting level for Richie Fallows: 31,113, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Adam Auckland: 19,827, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Richie Fallows to win as he is currently playing 57% better than Adam Auckland.

Adam Auckland won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 26% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adam Auckland played 36% better than Richie Fallows in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Adam Auckland actually played at a level of 28,914 and Richie Fallows at a level of 21,335. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 46% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 35% and 35% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adam Auckland changes to +34% and Richie Fallows changes to -35%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adam Auckland becomes +7.3% and for Richie Fallows becomes -6.9%.

Given Adam Auckland's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 39% has been applied to his level change.

Given Richie Fallows's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 57% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Yorkshire Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Adam Auckland is +3.9% and for Richie Fallows is -3.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adam Auckland: 90%, Richie Fallows: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adam Auckland: 62%, Richie Fallows: 61%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Richie Fallows: 30,231, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Adam Auckland: 20,656, level confidence: 62%.