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Neil Cordell v Joe Lee (Wed 04 Dec 2019)

Match won by Joe Lee. Result: 5-11,9-11,6-11.

Starting level for Neil Cordell: 17,919, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Joe Lee: 25,575, level confidence: 59%.
Joe Lee to win as he is currently playing 43% better than Neil Cordell.

Joe Lee won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joe Lee played 65% better than Neil Cordell in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Joe Lee actually played at a level of 27,498 and Neil Cordell at a level of 16,666. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.5% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.3% and 6.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joe Lee changes to +6.3% and Neil Cordell changes to -5.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joe Lee becomes +1.9% and for Neil Cordell becomes -1.8%.

Given Joe Lee's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 49% has been applied to his level change.

Given Neil Cordell's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 35% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Joe Lee is +1% and for Neil Cordell is -1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joe Lee: 77%, Neil Cordell: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joe Lee: 72%, Neil Cordell: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Neil Cordell: 17,714, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Joe Lee: 25,781, level confidence: 72%.