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Harry Falconer v Lewis Doughty (Wed 04 Dec 2019)

Match won by Harry Falconer. Result: 12-10,11-3,7-11,11-3.

Starting level for Harry Falconer: 19,815, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for Lewis Doughty: 12,616, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Harry Falconer to win as he is currently playing 57% better than Lewis Doughty.

Harry Falconer won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 52% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harry Falconer played 34% better than Lewis Doughty in this match.

As Harry Falconer has played below his allowed range at 17,105, his level reduction is 1.3% before damping. On the assumption that Harry Falconer would normally have been playing at level 18,667 (based on typical behaviour), Lewis Doughty played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.1%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1% and 4.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harry Falconer changes to -0.9% and Lewis Doughty changes to +4.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harry Falconer becomes -0.4% and for Lewis Doughty becomes +1.7%.

Given Harry Falconer's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 39% has been applied to his level change.

Given Lewis Doughty's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 24% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Yorkshire Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Harry Falconer is 0% and for Lewis Doughty is +1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harry Falconer: 91%, Lewis Doughty: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harry Falconer: 84%, Lewis Doughty: 80%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Harry Falconer: 19,822, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Lewis Doughty: 12,775, level confidence: 80%.