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Kyle Finch v Richie Fallows (Wed 04 Dec 2019)

Match won by Richie Fallows. Result: 4-11,8-11,7-11.

Starting level for Kyle Finch: 16,150, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Richie Fallows: 30,084, level confidence: 59%.
Richie Fallows to win as he is currently playing 86% better than Kyle Finch.

Richie Fallows won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Richie Fallows played 74% better than Kyle Finch in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Richie Fallows was taking it easy by anything up to 10%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 23,659 and 30,084 without affecting his level.

In this case, Richie Fallows played at level 28,050 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Kyle Finch is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Richie Fallows: 77%, Kyle Finch: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Richie Fallows: 74%, Kyle Finch: 75%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Kyle Finch: 16,190, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Richie Fallows: 30,159, level confidence: 74%.