Vikram Malhotra v Anthony Rogal (Thu 05 Dec 2019)
Match won by Vikram Malhotra. Result: 11-6,11-4,11-5.
Starting level for
Vikram Malhotra:
29,835, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for
Anthony Rogal:
16,821, level confidence: 62%.
Vikram Malhotra to win as he is currently playing
77% better than Anthony Rogal.
Vikram Malhotra won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Vikram Malhotra played
120% better than Anthony Rogal in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Vikram Malhotra actually played at a level of
33,228 and Anthony Rogal at a level of
15,103. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 11% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.4% and 8.4% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Vikram Malhotra changes to +7.8% and Anthony Rogal changes to -8.4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Vikram Malhotra becomes +2.1% and for Anthony Rogal becomes -2.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Florida Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Vikram Malhotra: 82%, Anthony Rogal: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Vikram Malhotra: 73%, Anthony Rogal: 71%.
Final level for Vikram Malhotra:
30,472, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Anthony Rogal:
16,406, level confidence: 71%.