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Vikram Malhotra v Leandro Romiglio (Fri 06 Dec 2019)

Match won by Vikram Malhotra. Result: 11-4,6-11,11-9,11-7.

Starting level for Vikram Malhotra: 30,566, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Leandro Romiglio: 22,912, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Vikram Malhotra to win as he is currently playing 33% better than Leandro Romiglio.

Vikram Malhotra won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 26% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Vikram Malhotra played 25% better than Leandro Romiglio in this match.

As Vikram Malhotra has played below his allowed range at 28,831, his level reduction is 0.5% before damping. On the assumption that Vikram Malhotra would normally have been playing at level 29,753 (based on typical behaviour), Leandro Romiglio played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.8%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.4% and 1.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Vikram Malhotra changes to -0.4% and Leandro Romiglio changes to +1.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Vikram Malhotra becomes -0.2% and for Leandro Romiglio becomes +0.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Florida Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Vikram Malhotra: 85%, Leandro Romiglio: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Vikram Malhotra: 82%, Leandro Romiglio: 82%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Vikram Malhotra: 30,358, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Leandro Romiglio: 23,181, level confidence: 82%.