Vikram Malhotra v Mazen Gamal (Sat 07 Dec 2019)
Match won by Vikram Malhotra. Result: 11-9,12-14,11-3,11-9.
Starting level for
Vikram Malhotra:
30,358, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Mazen Gamal:
27,021, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Vikram Malhotra to win as he is currently playing
12% better than Mazen Gamal.
Vikram Malhotra won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Vikram Malhotra played
26% better than Mazen Gamal in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Vikram Malhotra actually played at a level of
32,172 and Mazen Gamal at a level of
25,497. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Vikram Malhotra changes to +4.8% and Mazen Gamal changes to -5.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Vikram Malhotra becomes +1.6% and for Mazen Gamal becomes -1.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Florida Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Vikram Malhotra: 91%, Mazen Gamal: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Vikram Malhotra: 85%, Mazen Gamal: 79%.
A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Vikram Malhotra:
30,761, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Mazen Gamal:
26,635, level confidence: 79%.