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Vikram Malhotra v Jesus Camacho (Sun 08 Dec 2019)

Match won by Vikram Malhotra. Result: 11-6,11-6,11-4.

Starting level for Vikram Malhotra: 30,692, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Starting level for Jesus Camacho: 27,919, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Vikram Malhotra to win as he is currently playing 10% better than Jesus Camacho.

Vikram Malhotra won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Vikram Malhotra played 106% better than Jesus Camacho in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Vikram Malhotra actually played at a level of 42,040 and Jesus Camacho at a level of 20,383. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 37% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Vikram Malhotra changes to +30% and Jesus Camacho changes to -35%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Vikram Malhotra becomes +6.1% and for Jesus Camacho becomes -7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Florida Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Jesus Camacho is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Vikram Malhotra: 92%, Jesus Camacho: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Vikram Malhotra: 67%, Jesus Camacho: 63%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Vikram Malhotra: 32,325, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Jesus Camacho: 26,609, level confidence: 63%.