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Simon Roach v Anthony Rogal (Mon 09 Dec 2019)

Match won by Anthony Rogal. Result: 5-11,5-11,9-11.

Starting level for Simon Roach: 6,965, level confidence: 54%.
Starting level for Anthony Rogal: 16,401, level confidence: 69%.
Anthony Rogal to win as he is currently playing 135% better than Simon Roach.

Anthony Rogal won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Anthony Rogal played 74% better than Simon Roach in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Anthony Rogal was taking it easy by anything up to 17%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 10,820 and 16,401 without affecting his level.

In this case, Anthony Rogal played at level 12,842 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Anthony Rogal would normally have been playing at level 13,633 (based on typical behaviour), Simon Roach played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.2%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Anthony Rogal changes to 0% and Simon Roach changes to +4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Anthony Rogal becomes 0% and for Simon Roach becomes +1.9%.

Given Simon Roach's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 7.7% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Middlesex Seniors League' so the adjustment for Anthony Rogal is 0% and for Simon Roach is +1.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Anthony Rogal: 83%, Simon Roach: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Anthony Rogal: 72%, Simon Roach: 63%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Simon Roach: 7,063, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Anthony Rogal: 16,418, level confidence: 72%.