SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Ben Coleman v Tim Vail (Wed 11 Dec 2019)

Match won by Ben Coleman. Result: 11-8,11-3,11-4.

Starting level for Ben Coleman: 32,660, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tim Vail: 21,287, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Ben Coleman to win as he is currently playing 53% better than Tim Vail.

Ben Coleman won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ben Coleman played 120% better than Tim Vail in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ben Coleman actually played at a level of 39,109 and Tim Vail at a level of 17,777. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 16% and 16% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ben Coleman changes to +15% and Tim Vail changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ben Coleman becomes +3.4% and for Tim Vail becomes -3.9%.

Given Ben Coleman's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 59% has been applied to his level change.

Given Tim Vail's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 42% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Ben Coleman is +1.6% and for Tim Vail is -2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ben Coleman: 90%, Tim Vail: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ben Coleman: 75%, Tim Vail: 73%.

A final adjustment of -0.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ben Coleman: 33,131, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Tim Vail: 20,607, level confidence: 73%.