Andy Whipp v Darren Lewis (Wed 11 Dec 2019)
Match won by Andy Whipp. Result: 11-5,11-2,11-6.
Starting level for
Andy Whipp:
19,811, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Darren Lewis:
11,554, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Andy Whipp to win as he is currently playing
71% better than Darren Lewis.
Andy Whipp won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andy Whipp played
154% better than Darren Lewis in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Andy Whipp actually played at a level of
24,105 and Darren Lewis at a level of
9,496. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 22% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 16% and 16% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andy Whipp changes to +14% and Darren Lewis changes to -16%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andy Whipp becomes +3.6% and for Darren Lewis becomes -4.5%.
Given Andy Whipp's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 39% has been applied to his level change.
Given Darren Lewis's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 21% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Yorkshire Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Andy Whipp is +2% and for Darren Lewis is -2.7%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andy Whipp: 89%, Darren Lewis: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andy Whipp: 73%, Darren Lewis: 69%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Andy Whipp:
20,249, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Darren Lewis:
11,277, level confidence: 69%.