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Richie Fallows v Ben Smith (Wed 11 Dec 2019)

Match won by Richie Fallows. Result: 11-9,11-6,11-6.

Starting level for Richie Fallows: 30,075, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Ben Smith: 15,607, level confidence: 50%.
Richie Fallows to win as he is currently playing 93% better than Ben Smith.

Richie Fallows won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Richie Fallows played 56% better than Ben Smith in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Richie Fallows was taking it easy by anything up to 11%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 23,052 and 30,075 without affecting his level.

In this case, Richie Fallows played at level 25,542 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Richie Fallows would normally have been playing at level 26,722 (based on typical behaviour), Ben Smith played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.6%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Richie Fallows changes to 0% and Ben Smith changes to +3.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Richie Fallows becomes 0% and for Ben Smith becomes +1.4%.

Given Ben Smith's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 31% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Yorkshire Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Richie Fallows is 0% and for Ben Smith is +0.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Richie Fallows: 85%, Ben Smith: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Richie Fallows: 77%, Ben Smith: 64%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Richie Fallows: 30,150, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Ben Smith: 15,774, level confidence: 64%.