Tayyab Aslam v Amrit Magar (Fri 06 Dec 2019)
Match won by Tayyab Aslam. Result: 11-3,11-1,11-1.
Starting level for
Tayyab Aslam:
28,344, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Amrit Magar:
4,344, level confidence: 25%.
Tayyab Aslam to win as he is currently playing
552% better than Amrit Magar.
Tayyab Aslam won all of the games and 87% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 560% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tayyab Aslam played
560% better than Amrit Magar in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tayyab Aslam actually played at a level of
28,507 and Amrit Magar at a level of
4,319. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.6% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tayyab Aslam changes to 0% and Amrit Magar changes to 0%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tayyab Aslam becomes +0% and for Amrit Magar becomes 0%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior South Asian Games' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tayyab Aslam: 85%, Amrit Magar: 50%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tayyab Aslam: 84%, Amrit Magar: 50%.
Final level for Tayyab Aslam:
28,353, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Amrit Magar:
4,338, level confidence: 50%.