Farhan Mehboob v Arhant Simha (Fri 06 Dec 2019)
Match won by Farhan Mehboob. Result: 11-1,11-8,11-8.
Starting level for
Farhan Mehboob:
31,879, level confidence: 47%.
Starting level for
Arhant Simha:
4,237, level confidence: 22%.
Farhan Mehboob to win as he is currently playing
652% better than Arhant Simha.
Farhan Mehboob won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Farhan Mehboob played
94% better than Arhant Simha in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Farhan Mehboob was taking it easy by anything up to 53%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 7,062 and 31,879 without affecting his level.
In this case, Farhan Mehboob played at level 11,109 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Farhan Mehboob would normally have been playing at level 15,004 (based on typical behaviour), Arhant Simha played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 35%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 12% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Farhan Mehboob changes to 0% and Arhant Simha changes to +12%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Farhan Mehboob becomes 0% and for Arhant Simha becomes +4.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior South Asian Games' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Farhan Mehboob: 68%, Arhant Simha: 47%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Farhan Mehboob: 35%, Arhant Simha: 24%.
Final level for Farhan Mehboob:
31,879, level confidence: 35%.
Final level for Arhant Simha:
4,422, level confidence: 24%.