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Tayyab Aslam v Abhay Singh (Sat 07 Dec 2019)

Match won by Tayyab Aslam. Result: 6-11,11-4,12-14,12-10,11-7.

Starting level for Tayyab Aslam: 28,566, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Starting level for Abhay Singh: 21,506, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Tayyab Aslam to win as he is currently playing 33% better than Abhay Singh.

Tayyab Aslam won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 13% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tayyab Aslam played 11% better than Abhay Singh in this match.

As Tayyab Aslam has played below his allowed range at 25,410, his level reduction is 6.7% before damping. On the assumption that Tayyab Aslam would normally have been playing at level 27,827 (based on typical behaviour), Abhay Singh played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.1%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.8% and 7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tayyab Aslam changes to -5.5% and Abhay Singh changes to +7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tayyab Aslam becomes -1.7% and for Abhay Singh becomes +2.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior South Asian Games' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tayyab Aslam: 92%, Abhay Singh: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tayyab Aslam: 84%, Abhay Singh: 82%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tayyab Aslam: 28,064, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Abhay Singh: 21,996, level confidence: 82%.