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Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu v Farhan Mehboob (Sat 07 Dec 2019)

Match won by Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu. Result: 8-11,11-9,6-11,11-8,11-9.

Starting level for Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu: 27,638, level confidence: 55%.
Starting level for Farhan Mehboob: 31,714, level confidence: 35%.
Farhan Mehboob to win as he is currently playing 15% better than Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu.

Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu won 60% of the games and 49% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu played 7% better than Farhan Mehboob in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu actually played at a level of 30,622 and Farhan Mehboob at a level of 28,624. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10.8% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu changes to +6.3% and Farhan Mehboob changes to -10%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu becomes +1.9% and for Farhan Mehboob becomes -2.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior South Asian Games' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu: 74%, Farhan Mehboob: 59%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu: 67%, Farhan Mehboob: 53%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu: 28,142, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Farhan Mehboob: 30,949, level confidence: 53%.