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Farhan Mehboob v Abhay Singh (Tue 10 Dec 2019)

Match won by Farhan Mehboob. Result: 11-8,12-10,11-5.

Starting level for Farhan Mehboob: 31,128, level confidence: 52%.
Starting level for Abhay Singh: 21,996, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Farhan Mehboob to win as he is currently playing 42% better than Abhay Singh.

Farhan Mehboob won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Farhan Mehboob played 50% better than Abhay Singh in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Farhan Mehboob actually played at a level of 32,068 and Abhay Singh at a level of 21,351. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.5% and 2.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Farhan Mehboob changes to +2.5% and Abhay Singh changes to -1.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Farhan Mehboob becomes +1% and for Abhay Singh becomes -0.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior South Asian Team Games Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Farhan Mehboob: 72%, Abhay Singh: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Farhan Mehboob: 70%, Abhay Singh: 87%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Farhan Mehboob: 31,170, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Abhay Singh: 21,984, level confidence: 87%.