Daniel Mekbib v Lewis Anderson (Wed 11 Dec 2019)
Match won by Daniel Mekbib. Result: 11-9,11-7,11-13,11-7.
Starting level for
Daniel Mekbib:
27,793, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Lewis Anderson:
16,876, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Daniel Mekbib to win as he is currently playing
65% better than Lewis Anderson.
Daniel Mekbib won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 22% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daniel Mekbib played
24% better than Lewis Anderson in this match.
As Daniel Mekbib has played below his allowed range at 22,465, his level reduction is 7.3% before damping. On the assumption that Daniel Mekbib would normally have been playing at level 25,881 (based on typical behaviour), Lewis Anderson played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 11%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.6% and 8.6% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daniel Mekbib changes to -4.9% and Lewis Anderson changes to +8.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Daniel Mekbib becomes -1.6% and for Lewis Anderson becomes +2.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Imet Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daniel Mekbib: 92%, Lewis Anderson: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daniel Mekbib: 80%, Lewis Anderson: 74%.
Final level for Daniel Mekbib:
27,353, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Lewis Anderson:
17,306, level confidence: 74%.