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Scott Handley v Miles Jenkins (Sun 15 Dec 2019)

Match won by Miles Jenkins. Result: 11-9,4-11,6-11,5-11.

Starting level for Scott Handley: 14,354, level confidence: 46%.
Starting level for Miles Jenkins: 22,491, level confidence: 59%.
Miles Jenkins to win as he is currently playing 57% better than Scott Handley.

Miles Jenkins won 75% of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 62% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Miles Jenkins played 37% better than Scott Handley in this match.

As Miles Jenkins has played below his allowed range at 19,681, his level reduction is 0% before damping. On the assumption that Miles Jenkins would normally have been playing at level 21,199 (based on typical behaviour), Scott Handley played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.8%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Miles Jenkins changes to 0% and Scott Handley changes to +3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Miles Jenkins becomes -0% and for Scott Handley becomes +1.4%.

Given Miles Jenkins's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 44% has been applied to his level change.

Given Scott Handley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 28% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hampshire Mens League 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Miles Jenkins is 0% and for Scott Handley is +0.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Miles Jenkins: 77%, Scott Handley: 68%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Miles Jenkins: 72%, Scott Handley: 63%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Scott Handley: 14,449, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Miles Jenkins: 22,456, level confidence: 72%.