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Mohammad Syafiq Kamal v Joong-Won Hwang (Fri 29 Nov 2019)

Match won by Mohammad Syafiq Kamal. Result: 11-9,11-7,11-6.

Starting level for Mohammad Syafiq Kamal: 20,754, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Joong-Won Hwang: 12,366, level confidence: 47%.
Mohammad Syafiq Kamal to win as he is currently playing 68% better than Joong-Won Hwang.

Mohammad Syafiq Kamal won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohammad Syafiq Kamal played 52% better than Joong-Won Hwang in this match.

In this case, Mohammad Syafiq Kamal played at level 18,991 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Mohammad Syafiq Kamal would normally have been playing at level 19,232 (based on typical behaviour), Joong-Won Hwang played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.3%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohammad Syafiq Kamal changes to 0% and Joong-Won Hwang changes to +1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohammad Syafiq Kamal becomes 0% and for Joong-Won Hwang becomes +0.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior World Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohammad Syafiq Kamal: 83%, Joong-Won Hwang: 68%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohammad Syafiq Kamal: 79%, Joong-Won Hwang: 65%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mohammad Syafiq Kamal: 20,723, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Joong-Won Hwang: 12,405, level confidence: 65%.