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Valentin Rapp v Mohammad Syafiq Kamal (Tue 03 Dec 2019)

Match won by Valentin Rapp. Result: 11-7,11-9,12-10.

Starting level for Valentin Rapp: 21,458, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mohammad Syafiq Kamal: 20,387, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Valentin Rapp to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Mohammad Syafiq Kamal.

Valentin Rapp won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 31% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Valentin Rapp played 39% better than Mohammad Syafiq Kamal in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Valentin Rapp actually played at a level of 24,638 and Mohammad Syafiq Kamal at a level of 17,755. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Valentin Rapp changes to +14% and Mohammad Syafiq Kamal changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Valentin Rapp becomes +3.5% and for Mohammad Syafiq Kamal becomes -3.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior World Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Valentin Rapp: 91%, Mohammad Syafiq Kamal: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Valentin Rapp: 79%, Mohammad Syafiq Kamal: 78%.

A final adjustment of +0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Valentin Rapp: 22,091, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Mohammad Syafiq Kamal: 19,958, level confidence: 78%.