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Mohammad Syafiq Kamal v Leung Chi Hin Henry (Sun 08 Dec 2019)

Match won by Mohammad Syafiq Kamal. Result: 14-12,11-8.

Starting level for Mohammad Syafiq Kamal: 19,958, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Leung Chi Hin Henry: 25,580, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Leung Chi Hin Henry to win as he is currently playing 28% better than Mohammad Syafiq Kamal.

Mohammad Syafiq Kamal won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 25% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohammad Syafiq Kamal played 35% better than Leung Chi Hin Henry in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mohammad Syafiq Kamal actually played at a level of 26,243 and Leung Chi Hin Henry at a level of 19,454. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 31% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 27% and 27% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 20% and 20% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohammad Syafiq Kamal changes to +20% and Leung Chi Hin Henry changes to -19%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohammad Syafiq Kamal becomes +4.7% and for Leung Chi Hin Henry becomes -4.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior World Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohammad Syafiq Kamal: 87%, Leung Chi Hin Henry: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohammad Syafiq Kamal: 66%, Leung Chi Hin Henry: 68%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mohammad Syafiq Kamal: 20,863, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Leung Chi Hin Henry: 24,482, level confidence: 68%.