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Farhan Mehboob v Amaad Fareed (Mon 16 Dec 2019)

Match won by Farhan Mehboob. Result: 7-11,11-5,5-11,11-7,11-5.

Starting level for Farhan Mehboob: 31,065, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Amaad Fareed: 23,489, level confidence: 69%.
Farhan Mehboob to win as he is currently playing 32% better than Amaad Fareed.

Farhan Mehboob won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 15% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Farhan Mehboob played 11% better than Amaad Fareed in this match.

As Farhan Mehboob has played below his allowed range at 27,787, his level reduction is 6.2% before damping. On the assumption that Farhan Mehboob would normally have been playing at level 30,284 (based on typical behaviour), Amaad Fareed played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.6%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.4% and 6.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Farhan Mehboob changes to -5.4% and Amaad Fareed changes to +6.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Farhan Mehboob becomes -1.7% and for Amaad Fareed becomes +2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Pakistan International Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Farhan Mehboob: 83%, Amaad Fareed: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Farhan Mehboob: 76%, Amaad Fareed: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Farhan Mehboob: 30,480, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Amaad Fareed: 23,959, level confidence: 76%.