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Tayyab Aslam v Noor Zaman (Mon 16 Dec 2019)

Match won by Tayyab Aslam. Result: 11-8,13-11,11-5.

Starting level for Tayyab Aslam: 29,399, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Noor Zaman: 16,322, level confidence: 34%.
Tayyab Aslam to win as he is currently playing 80% better than Noor Zaman.

Tayyab Aslam won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 46% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tayyab Aslam played 49% better than Noor Zaman in this match.

In this case, Tayyab Aslam played at level 25,471 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Tayyab Aslam would normally have been playing at level 26,702 (based on typical behaviour), Noor Zaman played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.8%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tayyab Aslam changes to 0% and Noor Zaman changes to +3.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tayyab Aslam becomes 0% and for Noor Zaman becomes +1.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Pakistan International Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tayyab Aslam: 89%, Noor Zaman: 58%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tayyab Aslam: 81%, Noor Zaman: 53%.

Final level for Tayyab Aslam: 29,399, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Noor Zaman: 16,563, level confidence: 53%.