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Farhan Mehboob v Farhan Zaman (Tue 17 Dec 2019)

Match won by Farhan Mehboob. Result: 11-2,4-11,11-5,11-3.

Starting level for Farhan Mehboob: 30,540, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Farhan Zaman: 19,107, level confidence: 62%.
Farhan Mehboob to win as he is currently playing 60% better than Farhan Zaman.

Farhan Mehboob won 75% of the games and 64% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 76% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Farhan Mehboob played 42% better than Farhan Zaman in this match.

In this case, Farhan Mehboob played at level 27,871 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Farhan Mehboob would normally have been playing at level 28,651 (based on typical behaviour), Farhan Zaman played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.8%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Farhan Mehboob changes to 0% and Farhan Zaman changes to +2.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Farhan Mehboob becomes 0% and for Farhan Zaman becomes +1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Pakistan International Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Farhan Mehboob: 87%, Farhan Zaman: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Farhan Mehboob: 82%, Farhan Zaman: 74%.

Final level for Farhan Mehboob: 30,540, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Farhan Zaman: 19,291, level confidence: 74%.