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Tayyab Aslam v Yahya Elnawasany (Tue 17 Dec 2019)

Match won by Tayyab Aslam. Result: 11-2,11-8,11-3.

Starting level for Tayyab Aslam: 29,192, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for Yahya Elnawasany: 21,055, level confidence: 64%.
Tayyab Aslam to win as he is currently playing 39% better than Yahya Elnawasany.

Tayyab Aslam won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tayyab Aslam played 154% better than Yahya Elnawasany in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tayyab Aslam actually played at a level of 39,500 and Yahya Elnawasany at a level of 15,561. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 35% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 29% and 29% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tayyab Aslam changes to +23% and Yahya Elnawasany changes to -29%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tayyab Aslam becomes +5% and for Yahya Elnawasany becomes -6.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Pakistan International Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Yahya Elnawasany is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tayyab Aslam: 90%, Yahya Elnawasany: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tayyab Aslam: 66%, Yahya Elnawasany: 59%.

A final adjustment of +0.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tayyab Aslam: 30,341, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Yahya Elnawasany: 20,503, level confidence: 59%.