Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu v Abhishek Pradhan (Wed 18 Dec 2019)
Match won by Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu. Result: 11-9,11-5,11-8.
Starting level for
Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu:
27,238, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Abhishek Pradhan:
19,859, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu to win as he is currently playing
37% better than Abhishek Pradhan.
Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu played
52% better than Abhishek Pradhan in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu actually played at a level of
28,641 and Abhishek Pradhan at a level of
18,886. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.2% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.4% and 4.4% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu changes to +4.4% and Abhishek Pradhan changes to -4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu becomes +1.5% and for Abhishek Pradhan becomes -1.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Srfi Indian Tour' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu: 86%, Abhishek Pradhan: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu: 82%, Abhishek Pradhan: 86%.
Final level for Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu:
27,646, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Abhishek Pradhan:
19,561, level confidence: 86%.