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Farhan Mehboob v Youssef Soliman (Wed 18 Dec 2019)

Match won by Farhan Mehboob. Result: 8-11,14-16,11-2,11-5,12-10.

Starting level for Farhan Mehboob: 30,508, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Youssef Soliman: 38,898, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Youssef Soliman to win as he is currently playing 28% better than Farhan Mehboob.

Farhan Mehboob won 60% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 27% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Farhan Mehboob played 14% better than Youssef Soliman in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Farhan Mehboob actually played at a level of 36,832 and Youssef Soliman at a level of 32,219. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 18% and 18% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Farhan Mehboob changes to +16% and Youssef Soliman changes to -18%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Farhan Mehboob becomes +3.6% and for Youssef Soliman becomes -3.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Pakistan International Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Farhan Mehboob: 90%, Youssef Soliman: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Farhan Mehboob: 75%, Youssef Soliman: 70%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Farhan Mehboob: 31,530, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Youssef Soliman: 37,455, level confidence: 70%.