Tayyab Aslam v Mohamed Elsherbini (Wed 18 Dec 2019)
Match won by Tayyab Aslam. Result: 11-6,9-11,11-9,11-9.
Starting level for
Tayyab Aslam:
30,573, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for
Mohamed Elsherbini:
33,179, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Mohamed Elsherbini to win as he is currently playing
9% better than Tayyab Aslam.
Tayyab Aslam won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 20% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tayyab Aslam played
23% better than Mohamed Elsherbini in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tayyab Aslam actually played at a level of
35,373 and Mohamed Elsherbini at a level of
28,677. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tayyab Aslam changes to +15% and Mohamed Elsherbini changes to -13%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tayyab Aslam becomes +3.5% and for Mohamed Elsherbini becomes -3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Pakistan International Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tayyab Aslam: 81%, Mohamed Elsherbini: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tayyab Aslam: 70%, Mohamed Elsherbini: 76%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Tayyab Aslam:
31,522, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Mohamed Elsherbini:
32,486, level confidence: 76%.