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Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu v Ondrej Uherka (Thu 19 Dec 2019)

Match won by Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu. Result: 11-7,9-11,6-11,11-6,11-7.

Starting level for Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu: 27,640, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Ondrej Uherka: 16,203, level confidence: 57%.
Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu to win as he is currently playing 71% better than Ondrej Uherka.

Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 14% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu played 11% better than Ondrej Uherka in this match.

As Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu has played below his allowed range at 20,577, his level reduction is 14% before damping. On the assumption that Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu would normally have been playing at level 25,501 (based on typical behaviour), Ondrej Uherka played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 19%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10.8% and 14% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu changes to -7.3% and Ondrej Uherka changes to +14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu becomes -2.1% and for Ondrej Uherka becomes +3.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Srfi Indian Tour' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu: 90%, Ondrej Uherka: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu: 73%, Ondrej Uherka: 61%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Harinder Pal Singh Sandhu: 27,075, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Ondrej Uherka: 16,812, level confidence: 61%.