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Tayyab Aslam v Farhan Mehboob (Thu 19 Dec 2019)

Match won by Tayyab Aslam. Result: 11-8,13-11,11-4.

Starting level for Tayyab Aslam: 31,554, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for Farhan Mehboob: 31,670, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Farhan Mehboob to win as he is currently playing 0% better than Tayyab Aslam.

Tayyab Aslam won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 52% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tayyab Aslam played 53% better than Farhan Mehboob in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tayyab Aslam actually played at a level of 39,115 and Farhan Mehboob at a level of 25,548. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 24% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tayyab Aslam changes to +24% and Farhan Mehboob changes to -22%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tayyab Aslam becomes +5% and for Farhan Mehboob becomes -4.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Pakistan International Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tayyab Aslam: 84%, Farhan Mehboob: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tayyab Aslam: 67%, Farhan Mehboob: 70%.

A final adjustment of +0.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tayyab Aslam: 32,921, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Farhan Mehboob: 31,001, level confidence: 70%.